A team of researchers, led by Dr. Willem van Panhuis of the University of Pittsburgh, used Project Tycho data on dengue cases in eight southeast Asian countries to examine the relationship between dengue cases and climate patterns, such as El Niño events.
Authors
Xin Xiong
Nian Shong Chok
Pasakorn Akarasewid
Sopon Iamsirithawornd
Sai K. Lam
Chee K. Chong
Fook C. Lam
Bounlay Phommasak
Phengta Vongphrachanh
Khamphaphongphane Bouaphanh
Huy Rekol
Nguyen Tran Hien
Pham Quang Thai
Tran Nhu Duong
Yu-Lun Liu, Lee-Ching Ng
Yuan Shi
Enrique A. Tayag
Vito G. Roque, Jr.
Lyndon L. Lee Suyo,
Richard G. Jarman
Robert V. Gibbons
John Mark S. Velasco
Related Project Tycho Datasets
Cambodia - Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Cambodia - Dengue without warning signs
Lao People's Democratic Republic - Dengue
Lao People's Democratic Republic - Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Lao People's Democratic Republic - Dengue without warning signs
Malaysia - Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Malaysia - Dengue without warning signs
Philippines - Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever/a>
Philippines - Dengue without warning signs
Singapore - Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Singapore - Dengue without warning signs
Taiwan, Province of China - Dengue
Thailand - Dengue without warning signs
Viet Nam - Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Viet Nam - Dengue without warning signs
Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼107 km2. We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997–1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001–2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997–1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2–5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.
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